Customs data shows China imported around 7% less gas last month compared to August. This results in total gas imports for the year being roughly 6% below last year. Previously, the difference was 10%, indicating some recovery in demand, partly due to increased LNG imports since April.
If the recovery trend persists, European gas prices may rise. The EU is expected to need more LNG with the heating season’s start. Recently, the TTF European benchmark price dropped slightly after reaching approximately EUR 33.50 per MWh, amidst falling temperature expectations.
Gas Storage Levels
Gas storage levels have been increasing slightly, reaching 83% capacity over the past week. In Germany, the storage levels have stabilized after a decrease early last week.
We see conflicting signals in the gas market as of October 14, 2025. China’s demand for gas is clearly recovering, with their year-to-date imports now only 6% below the 2024 level, a significant improvement from the 10% deficit seen earlier in the year. This growing appetite for LNG will increase competition for cargoes just as Europe’s heating season demand begins to ramp up.
While European gas storage is currently at 83% capacity, this provides less of a cushion than we had in the past. For comparison, at this same time back in October 2023, EU storage was over 97% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The current minimal rate of injections suggests we may have already reached our seasonal peak, leaving the market more exposed to a cold winter than in previous years.
Market Volatility and Trading Strategies
The recent dip in the TTF benchmark price, after it touched €33.50 per MWh, should be seen as temporary market noise reacting to short-term weather. Implied volatility on front-month TTF options has ticked up to nearly 80%, a level that signals traders are bracing for sharp price movements. This environment of high uncertainty but substantial storage suggests a capped upside but a volatile trading range.
Given these dynamics, derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from this expected volatility. Buying November or December 2025 straddles could capitalize on a significant price swing, regardless of direction, driven by weather forecasts or LNG shipment news. Alternatively, bull call spreads could be used to bet on a modest price increase while defining risk, acknowledging that the 83% storage level will likely prevent the explosive price spikes we saw in 2022.
