Wave 4 Elliott Wave Structure
Wave 4 formed a double three Elliott Wave structure: wave ((w)) decreased to $252.31, wave ((x)) increased to $262.13, and wave ((y)) completed at $235.50. If the $224.85 level holds, the stock is anticipated to rise in wave 5, targeting between $280.50 and $294.40, aligning with the 123.6%–161.8% inverse retracement of wave 4.
The information provided is not personalised advice. The author and FXStreet are not responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions and will not be liable for any resultant losses or damages.
Based on the view that AMD’s rally from its April 2025 low is incomplete, we should consider bullish positions. The recent structure implies another upward move is likely after the stock found a bottom at $235.50. This technical outlook is supported by AMD’s strong third-quarter earnings report from last week, which beat expectations on data center growth and provided upbeat guidance for the holiday season.
Immediate Target for Wave 5
The immediate target for this next leg, or wave 5, is projected to be between $280.50 and $294.40. We can play this by buying call options with December 2025 expiration dates and strike prices around $285 or $290. Looking at the options chain, implied volatility has settled after the earnings announcement, making entry costs for these bullish bets more reasonable than they were a few weeks ago.
Our risk is clearly defined, as the bullish scenario is negated if AMD breaks below the $224.85 pivot. To manage this, we can use bull call spreads to limit upfront cost or sell cash-secured puts with strikes below the recent $235.50 low. This strategy allows us to collect premium while waiting for the expected upward move to resume.
The broader market context supports this bullish thesis for AMD, as the semiconductor index (SOX) has gained over 8% since mid-October 2025. We have seen this type of setup before, particularly during the 2021 market rally, where strong technical patterns in leading stocks preceded broader market gains. Anticipation is also building for the upcoming Supercomputing Conference, where we expect new details on AMD’s enterprise AI chips.
