Australia’s participation rate held steady at 67% in October. This means that the proportion of the working age population either employed or unemployed remains unchanged.
The WTI crude oil price is bullish at the European market’s opening. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar remains stronger following a steadying of the US Dollar after the recent shutdown ending.
The USD/CAD remains above the lower ascending channel boundary near 1.4000. Gold surged to a three-week high, attributed to dovish bets on the Fed amidst the US government reopening.
The Japanese Yen
The NZD/USD failed to extend its three-day winning streak. The Japanese Yen is vulnerable, nearing a nine-month low due to ongoing uncertainty from the Bank of Japan.
EUR/USD stays below 1.1600, affected by the US Dollar rebound after the US government shutdown officially ended. GBP/USD suffered near 1.3100 due to disappointing UK GDP data.
Stellar’s price is optimistic, nearing key resistance at $0.297, boosted by a new project partnership. Hyperliquid remains above $38 despite recent losses, affected by a $4.9 million market loss.
Trading Strategies in 2025
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The Australian participation rate holding steady at 67% indicates a persistently tight labor market, a trend we have seen for some time. This underlying economic strength supports the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a hawkish stance compared to its global peers. We see value in using options to build long positions in the Australian Dollar against currencies with a more dovish central bank outlook.
We are seeing a familiar pattern with the US Dollar, which feels similar to the sentiment after the major government shutdown back in 2019. Recent US inflation data has cooled, with the latest Consumer Price Index showing an annual rate of 3.1%, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve’s next move will be a rate cut. This environment makes it prudent to consider strategies that benefit from a weaker dollar, such as buying puts on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Gold is climbing on this dovish Fed outlook, as lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Historically, gold has performed well in the months leading up to a Fed easing cycle, a pattern that appears to be repeating. We believe buying call options on gold futures is a compelling way to gain exposure to further upside through the end of the year.
Meanwhile, we continue to observe weakness in the British Pound, driven by sluggish growth figures reminiscent of past economic struggles. The UK’s latest quarterly GDP growth came in at a meager 0.2%, confirming the persistent headwinds facing the economy. This divergence suggests shorting GBP against the stronger Australian Dollar could be an effective pair trade in the coming weeks.
