Key Points
- WTI crude fell 0.93% to $59.53, while Brent dropped 0.82% to $63.86 per barrel.
- Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub resumed loadings after a two-day halt that had briefly supported prices.
Oil prices retreated on Monday, erasing last week’s gains as Russia’s key Novorossiysk export terminal resumed operations following a two-day suspension caused by a Ukrainian drone attack.
At 04:23 GMT, Brent crude futures traded at $63.86, down 53 cents, while WTI crude futures slipped 56 cents to $59.53. Both benchmarks had rallied over 2% on Friday, briefly supported by the outage at Novorossiysk and the nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, which together account for roughly 2% of global supply.
Industry data confirmed that oil loadings at Novorossiysk restarted on Sunday, but analysts said market participants remain focused on the broader risk of infrastructure disruptions as Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian refineries.
Kyiv’s military reported strikes on Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries over the weekend, highlighting the ongoing fragility of Russia’s export network.
Sanctions and Supply Risks Add Volatility
Despite the immediate easing of supply fears, traders continue to assess the long-term effects of new U.S. sanctions targeting Lukoil and Rosneft, which will take effect after 21 November.
The sanctions aim to curtail Russian oil exports and pressure Moscow toward negotiations over Ukraine.
U.S. President Donald Trump also announced that additional measures may soon target any country doing business with Russia, while warning that Iran could be added to the list.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ last week reaffirmed its decision to raise December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, but will pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026.
The move reinforced a perception of oversupply, particularly as global production continues to outstrip demand growth.
According to ING, the oil market is expected to remain in a large surplus through 2026, though risks persist from geopolitical flare-ups and the recent Iranian tanker seizure in the Gulf of Oman, a route critical to 20 million barrels per day of oil shipments.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude (CL-OIL-VIP) trades near $59.36, down 0.69%, consolidating within a narrow range after peaking near $60.27 last week. On the daily chart, momentum indicators remain soft, with short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) showing limited upward bias.
The MACD histogram is flat below zero, reflecting sluggish momentum after recent volatility. Resistance is seen at $60.80–$61.20, while immediate support sits near $58.50 and $57.80.
Cautious Forecast
Analysts expect WTI to remain range-bound around $60 per barrel, fluctuating within a $5 band as supply and geopolitical risks offset oversupply concerns.
While drone attacks and sanctions may keep volatility elevated, OPEC+ output growth and rising U.S. rig counts—up three to 417 last week, according to Baker Hughes—are likely to limit upside momentum.
A sustained break below $58.50 could invite further declines toward $57.00, while renewed disruption at Russian export facilities could lift prices back above $61.00.
