Wave Projections
Expectations include a corrective pullback in wave II, possibly in 3, 7, or 11 swings. The Fibonacci projections target wave I to extend to the ₹1,200–₹1,300 range. Long-term targets for wave (III) are around ₹1,690 and ₹2,460, based on Fibonacci extensions.
Chennai Petroleum benefits from higher refining margins and rising demand in India, with the company’s strong operational base and role in the energy sector bolstering this outlook. The Elliott Wave pattern reflects these fundamentals, maintaining a favourable trend for buyers.
In conclusion, wave (II) completion at ₹434.10 supports further gains. The price could reach above ₹1,200 in the coming months as part of wave I of (III).
Technical Outlook and Strategies
In the coming weeks, we anticipate a potential short-term pullback before the next significant move higher. This dip would be an ideal entry point for bullish positions, such as buying call options or initiating bull call spreads. The analysis suggests this is the early stage of a powerful new upward wave, making entry on weakness a key strategy.
This technical outlook is supported by strong fundamentals as of late 2025. India’s petroleum consumption has remained robust, with data from October 2025 showing a 5.2% year-over-year increase in demand, partly driven by festive season travel. Furthermore, Asian refining margins have been healthy, with Singapore Gross Refining Margins averaging over $8.50 per barrel in the quarter ending September 2025, boosting profitability for refiners like Chennai Petroleum.
Looking back, we remember the stock’s powerful rally through early 2024, which established the peak of the prior cycle. The current setup suggests a retest of that high is likely, with an initial target zone between ₹1,200 and ₹1,300 in the coming months. This gives us a clear price objective for structuring our trades, perhaps using call options with strike prices near or below these levels.
For traders, this means selling out-of-the-money puts below the support level could be a viable strategy to collect premium while defining risk. Alternatively, buying at-the-money call options for the next few expiration cycles allows for participation in the expected upside. The key is to manage risk around the ₹434.10 invalidation point, as a break below it would require us to exit any bullish positions.
The overall chart picture is pointing upwards, aligning with the company’s strong operational position in a high-demand sector. We see the path of least resistance as higher, with long-term wave projections pointing towards ₹1,690. Therefore, we are not looking to initiate any short positions and will view any price weakness as a buying opportunity.
