The price of Copper briefly surpassed $11,000 per ton. Recent supply developments and economic data have impacted its market trajectory.

Weak economic indicators from China, coupled with resumed operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, have affected Copper prices. Although there has been a year-on-year increase in China’s industrial production, growth has slowed. This includes a drop in momentum for metal production, which ordinarily would benefit Copper prices.

Weak domestic demand, especially from China’s struggling real estate sector, affects the outlook for Copper demand. Due to robust production and low domestic demand, China is expected to increase its metal exports. Reports suggest October Copper exports exceeded 100,000 tons, potentially setting a new annual record.

Domestic and international factors, including high LME Copper prices, are driving increased exports. While China’s inventory levels have increased slightly since the beginning of the month, the trend points towards a potential decrease in Copper prices.

These observations are sourced from a compilation of market insights, featuring analyses by recognised industry experts and analysts.

The rally in copper appears to be losing its strength after briefly failing to hold the $11,000 per ton mark. We are seeing fundamental reasons for a price correction in the coming weeks. Traders should be cautious about long positions, as the market’s momentum is clearly shifting.

The primary concern is weakening demand from China, which is being confirmed by the latest economic figures. China’s preliminary Manufacturing PMI for November was just reported at 49.7, dipping back into contraction and signaling a slowdown in factory activity. This renewed downturn in their real estate market further clouds the outlook for industrial metal consumption.

At the same time, China’s own metal production remains robust, which is creating a surplus that is spilling onto global markets. Industry sources are reporting that Chinese copper exports hit a record of over 110,000 tons in October 2025. This trend will likely continue as long as high LME prices provide an incentive to sell abroad.

On the global supply side, the news that the Grasberg mine has partially resumed operations adds to the bearish sentiment. This is already being reflected in exchange inventories, with LME warehouse data showing a net inflow for the third consecutive week, pushing total stocks to their highest level in seven months. Looking back, this type of inventory build was a leading indicator of the price slumps we saw in 2023.

Given these headwinds, we believe it is prudent to position for a downward price correction. Establishing short positions via futures or purchasing put options could offer a way to capitalize on the expected weakness. The failure to sustain prices above the key $11,000 level should be seen as a significant technical warning sign.