The International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook, extending forecasts to 2050. In a notable shift, it predicted that Oil demand would not peak at the end of the current decade.
Within the Current Policies Scenario, Oil demand is projected to rise until 2050, ending 13% higher than the previous year’s estimate due to a slower electric mobility transition. In the Stated Policies Scenario, demand is expected to peak by 2030, assuming more policy measures are adopted.
Revised Outlooks Aligned
This revised outlook aligns the IEA more closely with OPEC’s forecast, which also anticipates rising Oil demand through 2050. Nonetheless, OPEC forecasts demand to be about 10 million barrels per day greater than the IEA’s at the end of the forecast period.
The FXStreet Insights Team curates selected market observations by experts, integrating both commercial notes and additional analyst insights.
We are seeing a major shift in the long-term energy outlook, as both the IEA and OPEC now see oil demand growing for much longer than previously expected. This new consensus, which points to demand rising until 2050 in some scenarios, is a significant change from the “peak demand this decade” narrative we’ve been trading on. The primary reason cited is a slower-than-anticipated global transition to electric vehicles.
This long-term forecast is supported by short-term data we’ve seen throughout 2025. Global EV sales figures for the third quarter of this year came in at 19%, missing analyst projections of 23%, as high interest rates and persistent battery supply chain issues have delayed purchases. We also saw both the UK and France push back their deadlines for phasing out combustion engine sales in announcements this past September.
Demand Remains Strong
The demand side of the equation remains exceptionally strong, especially as we head into the winter. U.S. air travel over the recent Veterans Day weekend just surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels for the first time, signaling robust jet fuel consumption. Combined with surprisingly resilient industrial production numbers from India and Southeast Asia, the argument for weakening demand is becoming harder to make.
We remember a similar structural shift in the market back in the 2017-2018 period, when fears of a supply glut faded and prices began a steady climb. This new alignment between the IEA and OPEC on the future of demand could remove a major psychological barrier that has kept a lid on long-term oil prices. It suggests that dips in price are more likely to be seen as buying opportunities rather than the start of a new downtrend.
For the coming weeks, this strengthens the case for bullish positions. We see value in buying call spreads on Brent crude for February 2026 delivery, positioning for upward price movement into the new year while defining our risk. Selling out-of-the-money puts on WTI for January 2026 expiry also looks attractive, as this new long-term floor should provide support against any significant near-term sell-offs.
We will be closely watching the upcoming weekly EIA inventory reports for signs of tightening crude stocks to confirm this thesis. The most important catalyst, however, will be the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in early December. Any statement reinforcing their commitment to production discipline would act as a powerful accelerator for this revised bullish outlook.
