European gas prices have remained close to this year’s low, at just over EUR 31 per MWh, which is about 25% lower than the previous year. This reduction in prices can be attributed to increased LNG availability, despite Europe’s storage levels being lower than usual.

LNG supply has improved, mainly due to increased output from the US and reduced demand from China, the largest importer. In October, China’s gas imports hit a six-month low at 9.78 million tons, marking a 6.2% reduction from last year.

LNG imports into China have been decreasing significantly, with figures up to September showing a drop of nearly 17%. Analysis from Kpler also indicates a consecutive twelfth-month decline in Chinese LNG imports for October, with mild early winter temperatures suggesting no immediate change in this trend.

The overall market continues to be shaped by these dynamics, with implications for global energy supply and prices. The focus remains on monitoring these trends to better understand future market movements and their potential impacts.

European gas prices are staying near this year’s lows, just over €31 per MWh, which is about 25% cheaper than what we saw this time in 2024. This is happening even though our gas storage levels, currently at 82.6%, are below both last year’s 93.3% and the five-year average. The market seems surprisingly calm about this storage deficit heading into winter.

The reason for this calm is the strong and steady supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG). We’ve not only expanded our import terminals since the energy crisis of 2022, but the global supply itself has improved significantly. This extra availability of gas cargoes is more than making up for what we lack in underground storage.

A lot of this extra supply is coming from increased production in the United States, which has firmly established itself as the world’s top LNG exporter. More importantly, however, is that demand from China has been noticeably weak this year, freeing up those cargoes to come to Europe instead. Their latest official data showed overall gas imports hitting a six-month low in October.

This trend of lower Chinese demand is critical; we are seeing their LNG imports fall for the twelfth consecutive month. Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows China’s LNG imports from January to October 2025 are down more than 15% from the same period last year. This situation is very similar to the demand slump we saw back in 2022, which also helped ease pressure on European prices during a critical time.

With mild temperatures forecast for the start of winter across much of Europe, there is little to suggest a sudden rebound in heating demand. For derivative traders, this points toward continued downward pressure on prices, making bearish strategies like buying puts on Dutch TTF futures an attractive option. The key risk to this view would be an unexpected prolonged cold snap or a major disruption to US supply.