MicroStrategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, yet 2025 sees a divergence between their stock performance and Bitcoin’s value. Despite Bitcoin reaching new highs, MicroStrategy’s stock, MSTR, shows persistent weakness, indicating underlying technical issues.
Elliott Wave analysis reveals critical support levels and potential downside targets. Since the company peaked at $543 in November 2024, MSTR has followed a declining trend, while Bitcoin continues to thrive. MSTR’s bearish pattern since November 2024 includes breaking the February 2025 low, confirming a double three correction.
Wave analysis suggests that after completing wave “w” in February 2025 and wave “x” bouncing higher, wave “y” is underway. The current focus is on wave ((W)), which reached the 61.8-76.4% Fibonacci zone. This suggests a possible short-term three-wave bounce before the downtrend continues.
The target area for a significant turnaround is projected at $138 – $63. Upon reaching this zone, a robust upward reaction is expected. Traders should look for short-term bounces as selling opportunities, while investors might wait for this extreme area before buying. Using the Elliott Wave strategy and proprietary systems can help time entries accurately for future rallies.
As of today, November 11, 2025, the divergence between MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin is a key signal for us. While Bitcoin has pushed past $120,000 to new all-time highs this quarter, MSTR stock has failed to follow, confirming the technical weakness we’ve seen since its peak at $543 a year ago. Our data shows MSTR now holds over 250,000 bitcoins, yet the market is clearly discounting this asset value.
We see a short-term bounce developing, which presents a clear opportunity for derivative traders. This is not a time to buy calls; instead, consider this a chance to sell into strength by initiating bearish positions like bear call spreads or selling out-of-the-money calls. Implied volatility has remained stubbornly high, recently hovering around 95% for near-term options, which makes selling premium an attractive strategy.
Once this brief rally fades, the stock should resume its downward path toward the equal legs target. This puts the $138 – $63 zone firmly in play as we move into the first quarter of 2026. Concern over the company’s multi-billion dollar debt load appears to be the primary factor creating an overhang that even a record-breaking Bitcoin price cannot overcome.
For those with a longer time horizon, buying long-dated puts could be a way to position for this continued correction into next year. Short interest in the stock has climbed back above 20% of the float, indicating a growing consensus that the company’s leverage is its weakness. This valuation gap between the stock and its underlying assets is the central reason for our bearish outlook.
