The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed on the back of the absence of new catalysts, with the DXY index last seen at 99.50. Daily chart momentum has diminished, and a decline in the RSI has slowed, indicating continued two-way trading. Resistance levels are identified at 100.40/60 and 101.20, while support stands at 99.10 and 98.20/40.
A vote in the Republican-controlled House is anticipated to end the government shutdown soon, but the timing of the return to normal data releases remains uncertain. Key data, including the CPI, PPI, and retail sales, scheduled for Thursday and Friday, is likely to be delayed. Historical patterns suggest that once the shutdown is resolved, past data will be released gradually, without waiting for the next scheduled date.
Market Observations And Insights
The FXStreet Insights Team gathers market observations from experts, with content featuring both commercial notes and insights from multiple analysts. This information provides a grounded overview of the current USD trading status and the potential impacts resulting from delayed data due to the US government shutdown.
The US Dollar continues to trade in a tight box, with the DXY index sitting around 99.50 as we await a fresh catalyst. We see the market lacking clear direction while the government shutdown delays key economic reports. Traders should watch resistance near the 100.40/60 area and support down at 99.10.
Given the absence of new data, we are essentially flying blind, forcing a greater reliance on technical levels. The delay in CPI and retail sales figures means the market cannot get a clear read on inflation or consumer health. This uncertainty is likely to keep the dollar range-bound until the shutdown ends and data flow resumes.
Before the shutdown began, we saw the October CPI print come in at a slightly elevated 3.4%, raising questions about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Fed officials have stressed their data-dependent approach, making the upcoming delayed releases even more critical for policy expectations. This sets the stage for a significant reaction once the numbers are finally public.
Looking back at the government shutdown of 2018-2019, we saw a similar pause followed by a sudden flood of economic data. This “data dump” caused a sharp spike in volatility as markets scrambled to digest months of information at once. We anticipate a similar scenario playing out in the coming weeks.
Buying Volatility As A Strategy
This suggests that buying volatility could be a prudent strategy. With the DXY stuck in a narrow range, implied volatility on dollar options is relatively subdued, but this will likely change. Setting up long straddles or strangles on major pairs like EUR/USD could position traders to profit from a large move in either direction once the data is released.
The immediate focus is the House vote, which is expected to pass and end the shutdown. Once that is confirmed, the key will be the new schedule for releasing the backlogged reports. A condensed release schedule could create a very choppy trading environment as markets react to multiple high-impact data points simultaneously.
