The Australian Dollar (AUD) may experience limited upward momentum, expected to test a maximum of 0.6560, with a major resistance level at 0.6580 anticipated to remain unchallenged. Analysts from UOB Group suggest that in the longer term, AUD might trade within a higher range of 0.6490 to 0.6580.
In the past 24 hours, as AUD rose to 0.6540, any further strengthening is anticipated to be constrained to around 0.6560. Current support levels are pinpointed at 0.6520 and 0.6510. Analysts note the rapid rise in AUD but believe upward momentum is insufficient to breach the 0.6580 resistance level.
Expected Trading Range
Over the next one to three weeks, the focus remains on AUD’s movement within the suggested range. Despite increased momentum, an excessive rise beyond 0.6580 seems unlikely. Last week’s forecast suggested a negative outlook, yet recent developments show a shift, as AUD climbed sharply to 0.6540. However, without significant momentum build-up, surpassing the critical 0.6580 mark may not be attainable in the near term.
Given the recent surge in the AUD/USD to 0.6540, the upward momentum appears to be peaking. We see the pair entering a new, higher trading range between 0.6490 and 0.6580 for the coming weeks. With the major resistance at 0.6580 expected to hold firm, this presents an opportunity for traders to sell volatility through options.
This perspective is bolstered by fundamental data released over the past few weeks. Australia’s Q3 2025 inflation report came in slightly hotter than expected at 3.8%, providing support for the Aussie dollar, but not enough for a major breakout. Meanwhile, the most recent US jobs report on November 7th showed a healthy but not spectacular addition of 190,000 jobs, which has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve action and is keeping the US dollar in check.
Options Trading Strategy
We have seen similar price action in the past, particularly during the fourth quarter of 2023 when the pair rallied strongly before consolidating for several months. That historical pattern suggests that after a sharp move like the one we just witnessed, a period of range-bound trading often follows. This precedent strengthens the case that the current rally is unlikely to extend much further.
For derivative traders, this outlook suggests selling out-of-the-money call options with strike prices at or above 0.6580, targeting expirations in late November or early December 2025. The recent spike in price has likely increased implied volatility, making these premiums more attractive to collect. To define the expected range, one could also sell puts with a strike below 0.6490 to construct an iron condor or a short strangle.
The primary risk to this strategy is a daily close above the 0.6580 level, which would invalidate the range-bound thesis. We should monitor upcoming statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia and any surprising data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner. Any clear break of the expected range would require a swift re-evaluation of the position.
