EUR/USD experienced a decline on Monday, attributed to a stronger US Dollar and decreased chances of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The currency pair retreated from a recent high, with traders eyeing a firm break below the 1.1600 level for further downside.
Technically, last week’s resistance near the 50-day Simple Moving Average supports the bearish outlook. Neutral daily chart oscillators suggest caution as the European Central Bank is expected to maintain its deposit rate, potentially bolstering the Euro.
Support And Resistance Levels
Further declines may attract buyers around the 1.1575-1.1570 support zone. A break below this could accelerate selling, targeting the 1.1500 level and possibly further to 1.1470-1.1465.
On the upside, the 50-day SMA near the 1.1660-1.1665 area presents a barrier. Surpassing this could lead to reclamation of the 1.1700 mark and beyond, aiming for the 1.1755-1.1760 range and eventually 1.1800.
The US Dollar’s current performance shows it strongest against the Australian Dollar. The heat map displays the percentage changes of major currencies, with the base and quote currencies cross-referenced from the rows and columns.
Current Market Overview
As of November 17, 2025, we are seeing the EUR/USD pair facing downward pressure, testing the 1.1600 level due to a stronger US dollar. This dollar strength is fueled by a growing belief that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates anytime soon. The pair failed to break above its 50-day moving average last week, which signals a potential continuation of this bearish trend.
This view is supported by recent economic data that reinforces the Fed’s position. The latest US Consumer Price Index for October came in at 3.4%, slightly above the 3.3% forecast, while the last jobs report showed a healthy addition of 210,000 jobs. This contrasts with the Eurozone, where recent inflation figures were a softer 2.5%, giving the European Central Bank less urgency to maintain a hawkish stance.
This divergence in central bank outlook is reminiscent of the trend we observed back in 2022, when Fed tightening pushed the dollar significantly higher against the euro. For derivative traders, the key support level to watch is the 1.1575-1.1570 zone. A decisive break below this area could trigger further selling, making put options or short futures contracts attractive, with an initial target around the 1.1500 mark.
On the other hand, caution is warranted as any further decline might attract buyers. The immediate resistance to monitor is the 50-day Simple Moving Average, currently around the 1.1665 area. A sustained move above this level would weaken the bearish case and could be a signal to close short positions or consider call options targeting the 1.1700 handle.
